Shin Beomchul, a senior research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and a former director-general for policy planning at South Korea’s foreign affairs ministry, warned that Moon has taken “a big risk” in so aggressively pursuing inter-Korean cooperation even without meaningful concessions from the North on its nuclear weapons.
“I think Moon Jae-in’s gamble is: trust in North Korea first, and verify later,” he said. “Trust-building is important, but the most important trust-building on the Korean Peninsula is denuclearization.”
Shin said North Korea would gain trust if it allowed credible inspections and provided a full description of its nuclear weapons, the amount of enriched uranium in its possession and all of its related facilities.
He said: “I think we must watch North Korea’s real action on denuclearization and expand our cooperation with the North step by step. I think that trust-building is too fast, compared to the denuclearization effort of North Korea.”
That is not a view shared by South Korea’s foreign minister, Kang Kyung-wha, who argued recently that demands for a full nuclear inventory could complicate negotiations at this stage. He said the U.S. should first consider trust-building steps such as a declaration ending the Korean War, which paused with an armistice in 1953.
U.S. officials fear an end-of-war declaration could ultimately pave the way for North Korea to demand the withdrawal of American troops from South Korea.
Shin warned that if the denuclearization talks broke down, it could cause “friction” in the relationship between South Korea and the U.S., partly because of the key role Seoul has played in communicating Pyongyang’s agenda.
Jenny Town, a research analyst at the Stimson Center in Washington and managing editor of the influential 38 North website, said she believed Moon had oversold the significance of Kim’s commitments to date.
Town told a conference in Seoul that if Trump felt fooled or frustrated, the response “could get ugly very fast.”
However, experts close to Moon say he has managed the risks.
Handong Global University professor Kim Joon-hyung, who is a member of a presidential planning committee on security and foreign policy, said Moon was “very cautious” about his role as a mediator between the U.S. and the North on the nuclear issue. If South Korea pushed too hard, the U.S. would feel pressured, he said.
At the same time, Moon is acting as an “accelerator of the Korean peace process” and trying to “break 70 years of distrust” on the peninsula. “We should be critical, not cynical — I think this time is different,” the professor said.
Kim, the North Korean defector, said she believes there has been a change in the mood.
She said Kim Jong Un had previously seemed “like a stranger” to many South Koreans, but the recent summits had allowed the world to hear his voice and see him move, making him seem more like a human being.
“But it doesn’t mean what Kim Jong Un does is good,” she said at the Seoul office of Teach North Korean Refugees, a nonprofit that helped her improve her English skills enough that she has become a confident public speaker.
While she hopes for closer integration between the two Koreas, she really wants an end to human rights abuses in the North. Having already written a book about her experiences, she plans to begin a master’s degree in sociology.
“My story is not finished,” she said. “I hope change comes true. However, I don’t trust the Kim regime.”