New England Patriots Have a 16% Chance of Winning the Super Bowl – Scout


We have recently enhanced the site to feature Team Outlook and Scouting Reports that provide one of a kind insights into your favorite team’s past, present and most importantly, future performance. Our Reports are updated daily in season and minimally weekly off-season and are geared towards fans who are analytical and invested ($) in their team’s performance. For our latest power rankings, betting futures and the detailed Fantasy Player Scouting reports powered by our proprietary projection model check out the new Scout.

We have recently enhanced the site to feature Team Outlook and Scouting Reports that provide one of a kind insights into your favorite team’s past, present and most importantly, future performance. Our Reports are updated daily in season and minimally weekly off-season and are geared towards fans who are analytical and invested ($) in their team’s performance. For our latest power rankings, betting futures and the detailed Fantasy Player Scouting reports powered by our proprietary projection model check out the new Scout.

We have recently enhanced the site to feature Team Outlook and Scouting Reports that provide one of a kind insights into your favorite team’s past, present and most importantly, future performance. Our Reports are updated daily in season and minimally weekly off-season and are geared towards fans who are analytical and invested ($) in their team’s performance. For our latest power rankings, betting futures and the detailed Fantasy Player Scouting reports powered by our proprietary projection model check out the new Scout.

We have recently enhanced the site to feature Team Outlook and Scouting Reports that provide one of a kind insights into your favorite team’s past, present and most importantly, future performance. Our Reports are updated daily in season and minimally weekly off-season and are geared towards fans who are analytical and invested ($) in their team’s performance. For our latest power rankings, betting futures and the detailed Fantasy Player Scouting reports powered by our proprietary projection model check out the new Scout.

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We have recently enhanced the site to feature Team Outlook and Scouting Reports that provide one of a kind insights into your favorite team’s past, present and most importantly, future performance. Our Reports are updated daily in season and minimally weekly off-season and are geared towards fans who are analytical and invested ($) in their team’s performance. For our latest power rankings, betting futures and the detailed Fantasy Player Scouting reports powered by our proprietary projection model check out the new Scout.

2019 SEASON PROJECTION

Their neutral win simulation percentage indicates that the Patriots are expected to have a similar record next season as they did last. The computer gives them a 16% chance of winning the Super Bowl making them a good value at 6/1, 14.3%. They are also a good bet to win the conference with a 28.3% chance at 3/1, 25%.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The 2018 season went as expected. They won 11 games vs an expected win total of 11.5. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 100% home win percentage was much better than expected (74.4%). They won 37.5% on the road which was much worse than expected (69.7%). Anyone who backed the Patriots in all of their games on the money line would be down -373 units. Against the spread, they have delivered a +130 profit risking 110 to win 100 (9-7 ATS). The Patriots are down against the spread on the road, but at home they have turned a profit. Below is a recap of all 16 regular games.

They are an elite scoring team based on points per game, despite a lower offensive TD per play rate. They are an elite scoring defense, despite a relatively low yards per play allowed rank.

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Season Recap PPG-PA Money Line ATS Record O/U Record
All Games 27.2 – 20.3 11-5, -373 9-7, +130 5-11 68.8% Under
On Road 21.6 – 24.0 3-5, -398 3-5, -250 3-5 62.5% Under
At Home 32.9 – 16.6 8-0, +246 6-2, +380 2-6 75% Under
12/30 NYJ 38-3 Win +12 Covered -14 Under 46.5
12/23 BUF 24-12 Win +13 ATS Loss -13.5 Under 45
12/16 @PIT 10-17 Loss -100 ATS Loss -2.5 Under 55.5
12/9 @MIA 33-34 Loss -100 ATS Loss -9 Over 49.5
12/2 MIN 24-10 Win +38 Covered -6 Under 50
11/25 @NYJ 27-13 Win +17 Covered -13 Under 46.5
11/11 @TEN 10-34 Loss -100 ATS Loss -6.5 Under 46.5
11/4 GB 31-17 Win +44 Covered -5 Under 56.5
10/29 @BUF 25-6 Win +8 Covered -13.5 Under 44.5
10/21 @CHI 38-31 Win +77 Covered -2 Over 49.5
10/14 KC 43-40 Win +53 ATS Loss -3.5 Over 59.5
10/4 IND 38-24 Win +15 Covered -10.5 Over 50
9/30 MIA 38-7 Win +33 Covered -6.5 Under 50.5
9/23 @DET 10-26 Loss -100 ATS Loss -6.5 Under 55
9/16 @JAC 20-31 Loss -100 ATS Loss -2 Over 44.5
9/9 HOU 27-20 Win +38 Covered -6.5 Under 49

TEAM OFFENSE (League Rank):

SITUATION PTS/G TD/PLAY YPP PASSYD YPA RUSHYD YPC TO/GAME
Past 16 Games 27.2 (#4) 4.5% (#12) 6.1 (#6) 275 (#9) 7.7 (#10) 127 (#5) 4.3 (#20) 1.1 (#6)
On the Road 21.6 (#19) 3.2% (#22) 5.9 (#16) 269 (#11) 7.3 (#14) 98 (#25) 3.9 (#29) 0.8 (#1)
At Home 32.9 (#3) 5.6% (#6) 6.3 (#2) 281 (#10) 8.1 (#9) 157 (#4) 4.5 (#12) 1.5 (#21)
Last 4 Games 26.2 (#7) 4.6% (#9) 6.0 (#6) 253 (#14) 7.4 (#9) 144 (#5) 4.6 (#12) 1.0 (#7)
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TEAM DEFENSE:

SITUATION PTS/G TD/PLAY YPP PASSYD YPA RUSHYD YPC TO/GAME
Past 16 Games 20.3 (#7) 3.7% (#10) 6.2 (#18) 261 (#21) 6.9 (#5) 113 (#11) 4.9 (#29) 1.8 (#5)
Road Games 24.0 (#19) 4.5% (#21) 6.7 (#28) 289 (#29) 7.8 (#22) 127 (#23) 5.1 (#30) 1.2 (#18)
Home Games 16.6 (#2) 2.9% (#4) 5.6 (#9) 234 (#8) 6.0 (#1) 99 (#8) 4.7 (#21) 2.2 (#2)
Last 4 Games 16.5 (#5) 3.8% (#16) 6.7 (#17) 221 (#13) 7.2 (#22) 131 (#21) 6.0 (#31) 2.0 (#2)
Season Recap PPG-PA Money Line ATS Record O/U Record
All Games 27.2 – 20.3 11-5, -373 9-7, +130 5-11 68.8% Under
On Road 21.6 – 24.0 3-5, -398 3-5, -250 3-5 62.5% Under
At Home 32.9 – 16.6 8-0, +246 6-2, +380 2-6 75% Under
12/30 NYJ 38-3 Win +12 Covered -14 Under 46.5
12/23 BUF 24-12 Win +13 ATS Loss -13.5 Under 45
12/16 @PIT 10-17 Loss -100 ATS Loss -2.5 Under 55.5
12/9 @MIA 33-34 Loss -100 ATS Loss -9 Over 49.5
12/2 MIN 24-10 Win +38 Covered -6 Under 50
11/25 @NYJ 27-13 Win +17 Covered -13 Under 46.5
11/11 @TEN 10-34 Loss -100 ATS Loss -6.5 Under 46.5
11/4 GB 31-17 Win +44 Covered -5 Under 56.5
10/29 @BUF 25-6 Win +8 Covered -13.5 Under 44.5
10/21 @CHI 38-31 Win +77 Covered -2 Over 49.5
10/14 KC 43-40 Win +53 ATS Loss -3.5 Over 59.5
10/4 IND 38-24 Win +15 Covered -10.5 Over 50
9/30 MIA 38-7 Win +33 Covered -6.5 Under 50.5
9/23 @DET 10-26 Loss -100 ATS Loss -6.5 Under 55
9/16 @JAC 20-31 Loss -100 ATS Loss -2 Over 44.5
9/9 HOU 27-20 Win +38 Covered -6.5 Under 49





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