AUD/USD upside stalls at familiar levels ahead of US jobs report


AUD/USD runs into resistance from the 29 June high

The highs today touched 0.7418, and that’s just above the high seen last Friday @ 0.7416 (note that your broker may have a different high here, mine has it at 0.7410). And so far the region between the 0.7410-20 level has been a key near-term resistance for AUD/USD.

The pair also made a run higher earlier in the week to a high of 0.7425 before failing and retreating lower towards the confluence of hourly moving averages again. Today, the same moving averages provided a base for buyers to lean on and they have taken the price higher following the risk rally earlier in the day.

Although European stocks and bond yields have pared gains on the day, and US equity futures are a little negative as well, the aussie is still maintaining its position as among the top of the FX leader board (only the kiwi is performing better on the day).

Despite the tepid tones in equities again, it seems like traders in the spot market are more focused on the US jobs report rather than anything else. Even the yen is holding steady in tight ranges for the most part so far today despite the fluctuation in risk sentiment.

As for AUD/USD, the key for buyers is to firmly break above the 0.7416 resistance and take out this week’s high at 0.7425. Following that, is a test of resistance between 0.7440-50 before further resistance and offers at the 0.7500 handle.

For sellers, it’s all about taking out the confluence of hourly moving averages near 0.7378. Move back below and near-term bias turns more bearish, and that will see a test of the 0.7360 handle and the 50.0 retracement level @ 0.7368. That will be followed by minor support near 0.7330-40 before the year’s low at 0.7311 being the final line in the sand for a move towards the downside.

Moving below the 0.7300 handle opens up a slippery slope in the pair with next key support levels sitting around the 0.7200 handle – more specifically just below it around 0.7160-80 levels.

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